By Simon Royer, REALTOR® at RE/MAX Icon Realty

Every conversation I have lately starts the same way.

Trump. Tariffs. Recession. And then someone asks me what it means for their house.

So let me give you an honest answer. Not a spin. Not a "the market is great, now is always a great time to buy" response. Just what I am actually seeing on the ground in Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, and Brantford right now.

And yes, I am doing Uber Eats when I can. That is the economy we are in. So I am not going to pretend everything is fine.

I will be honest. I have tried to stay pretty neutral on the whole Trump situation. He is one man. Markets have survived worse. But I cannot ignore the fact that almost every conversation I have with buyers and sellers these days finds its way to the orange man down south at some point. Whether people are worried about their jobs, their mortgage rate, or just the general vibe of the economy, it all seems to circle back to the same place.

So here we are.

Are we actually in a recession?

Technically, yes.

Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the definition of a technical recession and Canada has hit that mark. The Bank of Canada and the federal government are being careful about using the word publicly because of the psychological effect it has on consumer confidence. But the data is the data.

Does that mean the sky is falling? No. Does it mean things have shifted? Absolutely.

What do Trump's tariffs actually have to do with your house?

More than most people realize.

Waterloo Region and Brantford are manufacturing and automotive heavy markets. When trade uncertainty hits, it hits here first. Companies slow down hiring. Workers get nervous about job security. Nervous workers do not buy houses. Or they take longer to pull the trigger. Or they lowball because they feel like they have leverage.

And it is not just the tariffs. The CUSMA renegotiation is the Canada-US-Mexico trade agreement that replaced NAFTA. It is currently under review and the outcome is far from certain. For workers in automotive and manufacturing, that uncertainty is real. When you do not know what your industry looks like in two years, you do not go out and sign a thirty year mortgage. That hesitation shows up directly in the housing market.

Layer the tariffs on top of a CUSMA renegotiation on top of a technical recession and you start to understand why buyers are cautious right now. It is not one thing. It is everything hitting at once.

That hesitation is real and I am seeing it every week right now.

The tariff and trade situation has created a cloud of uncertainty over the Canadian economy that is hard to quantify but very easy to feel. Buyers are asking more questions. Taking longer to decide. Second guessing themselves on purchases they would have made without blinking a year ago.

That is not panic. That is caution. And there is a difference.

So what is actually happening in the market right now?

Homes are still selling. Let me be clear about that. The market has not collapsed. Well priced, well presented homes in good locations are still moving.

But a few things have changed:

Homes are sitting longer. Properties that would have had multiple offers in 2021 or 2022 are now sitting for weeks or months. Buyers have more time to think and more options to compare.

Price reductions are more common. Sellers who came to market with optimistic pricing are being forced to come down. The days of listing high and waiting for the market to catch up are largely over in this environment.

Buyers are hesitating. Not leaving. Just hesitating. The decision timeline has stretched. People want to feel more certain before committing to the biggest purchase of their lives when the news cycle is full of uncertainty.

Sellers are frustrated. Especially those who bought at peak prices and were hoping to sell at a profit. Some are holding. Some are reducing. Some are taking their homes off the market entirely and waiting.

People are pulling back on spending in general. It is not just home purchases. Renovations are being delayed or cancelled. Big ticket spending is being put on hold. When people feel uncertain about the economy they stop spending and start saving. That mindset affects everything from whether someone lists their home to whether they update their kitchen before listing.

What does this mean if you are thinking about selling?

It means pricing strategy matters more than ever right now.

In a hot market you can overprice and the market will eventually catch up. In this market, if you are priced wrong you will sit. And a home that sits gets stigmatized. Buyers start wondering what is wrong with it. You end up chasing the market down instead of getting ahead of it.

The sellers doing well right now are the ones who priced realistically from day one, prepared their homes properly, and worked with an agent who told them the truth instead of just telling them what they wanted to hear.

If you are thinking about selling, the worst thing you can do right now is overprice and hope. The second worst thing is wait indefinitely for a market that may not return to 2021 levels for years.

What does this mean if you are thinking about buying?

It means you actually have some leverage right now that you did not have three years ago.

More inventory. More time to think. Less competition on most properties. Sellers who are motivated and willing to negotiate.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady at its most recent announcement. That decision reflects the uncertainty we are all feeling. On one hand inflation is largely under control. On the other hand the economy is fragile enough that another cut could have unintended consequences. The Bank is watching the same trade war and recession signals everyone else is watching and trying not to make things worse.

Yes there is uncertainty in the economy. But there is always uncertainty. And interest rates have been coming down which improves affordability. One thing worth understanding right now: fixed mortgage rates are not directly tied to the Bank of Canada overnight rate. They are driven by the bond market, specifically Government of Canada bond yields. So even when the Bank of Canada cuts rates, fixed mortgage rates do not automatically follow. They can move independently and sometimes in the opposite direction. If you are waiting for a rate cut to trigger lower fixed rates, you may be waiting for the wrong thing. Talk to a mortgage broker who can give you the real picture based on where bond yields are sitting right now.

If you are buying a home to live in for the next five to ten years, trying to time the absolute bottom of the market is a fool's errand. Buy when it makes sense for your life and your finances.

The buyers who regret waiting are the ones who spent two years watching rates and headlines instead of just buying the house.

The honest bottom line

The economy is uncertain. The tariff situation is real. The technical recession is real even if nobody wants to say the word out loud.

But people still need to buy and sell homes. Life does not stop because of a trade war. Divorces happen. Babies are born. Retirements arrive. Job transfers come through. People still move.

The difference right now is that both buyers and sellers need to go in with clear eyes and realistic expectations. The market rewards honesty and punishes wishful thinking.

If you want someone who will give you the straight answer on what your home is worth and what the market looks like right now in your neighbourhood, that is what I do.

And if you see me driving for Uber Eats, wave. We are all just figuring it out.

Thinking about buying or selling in Waterloo Region or Brantford and want an honest read on the market? Let's talk.

Book a call with Simon

Frequently Asked Questions

How are Trump's tariffs affecting Canadian real estate in 2026? The tariffs have created economic uncertainty that is slowing buyer decision making, particularly in manufacturing and automotive heavy markets like Waterloo Region and Brantford. Homes are still selling but buyers are taking longer to commit and price reductions are more common than they were a year ago.

Is Canada in a recession in 2026? Canada has met the technical definition of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The Bank of Canada has been cautious about using the word publicly but the economic slowdown is real and visible in consumer behaviour including the housing market.

Should I sell my home during a recession? It depends on your situation and your timeline. Well priced homes in good condition are still selling. The key is pricing correctly from the start rather than chasing the market down after sitting too long. If you need to sell, waiting for a market recovery that may take years is not always the right strategy.

Should I buy a home during a recession? If you are buying to live in the home for five to ten years or more, trying to time the exact bottom of the market rarely works out. Recessions create buying opportunities with more inventory, less competition, and motivated sellers. The risk is that values could decline further in the short term.

How is the Waterloo Region real estate market doing in 2026? The market is balanced to slightly favouring buyers in most price ranges. Homes are selling but taking longer than in previous years. Overpriced properties are sitting and being reduced. Well priced homes in desirable neighbourhoods are still attracting buyers. The automotive and manufacturing uncertainty in the region is contributing to buyer hesitation.

How is the Brantford real estate market doing in 2026? Brantford is following a similar pattern to Waterloo Region. The $500K to $700K range is still active but buyers are more cautious. Homes above $800K are taking longer. The value gap between Brantford and the GTA or Waterloo Region still exists and continues to attract buyers looking for more space for their money.

What did the Bank of Canada decide at its last rate announcement? The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady at its most recent announcement. The decision reflects ongoing uncertainty around trade, tariffs, and the Canadian economy. Fixed mortgage rates are driven by bond yields not the overnight rate, so a hold does not necessarily mean fixed rates will stay flat.

Simon's Final Word

I am not going to pretend the economy is not doing what it is doing. You can see it. I can see it. The data shows it.

But I have also watched enough market cycles to know that the people who make smart decisions in uncertain times are the ones who deal with reality instead of waiting for certainty that never fully arrives.

If you want an honest conversation about what your home is worth or what buying looks like right now, reach out. I will tell you what I actually think.

Simon Royer, REALTOR® at RE/MAX Icon Realty 226-218-6875 | simonsayzsold.ca First time buyer guide | Free home evaluation | Book a call

This blog post reflects the personal opinions and professional experience of Simon Royer, REALTOR® at RE/MAX Icon Realty. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract. RE/MAX Icon Realty Brokerage, 33-620 Davenport Rd, Waterloo ON N2V 2C2